Projection models predict Trump wins 2020, incumbents and Presidents with good economies rarely lose

Donald Trump‘s poll numbers may be trending downward, but the president’s odds of winning re-election are looking up, according to economists.

Obama administration Treasury Secretary adviser Steve Rattner wrote a New York Times opinion column about Trump’s 2020 White House chances on Monday.

In his piece, Rattner, who served as counselor under former Treasury Secretary Tim Geittner, focused on three reports on prediction models from accredited economists who all found Trump will most likely retain his presidency next fall.

These same models foresaw Barack Obama‘s historic White House win in 2008, his re-election in 2012, and Trump’s unexpected victory in 2016.

Donald Trump's poll numbers may be trending downward as of late, but the president's odds of winning re-election are looking up, according to economists

Donald Trump's poll numbers may be trending downward as of late, but the president's odds of winning re-election are looking up, according to economists

Donald Trump’s poll numbers may be trending downward as of late, but the president’s odds of winning re-election are looking up, according to economists

Moody’s economist and Trump critic Mark Zandi has analyzed 12 prediction models for 2020 that evaluate economic trends at the state level and add political factors such as a president’s approval rating.

Zandi said Trump won in all  12 models in spite of his character.

‘If the election were held today, Trump would win according to the models and pretty handily,’ Zandi told Politico in March. ‘In three or four of them it would be pretty close. He’s got low gas prices, low unemployment and a lot of other political variables at his back. The only exception is his popularity, which matters a lot. If that falls off a cliff it would make a big difference.’

Donald Luskin of Trend Macrolytics examined the likely Electoral College outcomes and reached the same conclusion as Zandi. 

Rattner also noted that some of the models that predicted Trump would win in 2016 overestimated his margin of victory by an uncharacteristically high margin, which he credits to Trump’s polarizing persona.

Yale economics professor Ray Fair’s model found Trump’s 2020 vote share would ordinarily be as high as 56.1 percent, but notes ‘that’s before factoring in his personality’.

Some these economists' same models foresaw Barack Obama's historic White House win in 2008, his re-election in 2012, and Trump's unexpected victory in 2016

Some these economists' same models foresaw Barack Obama's historic White House win in 2008, his re-election in 2012, and Trump's unexpected victory in 2016

Some these economists’ same models foresaw Barack Obama’s historic White House win in 2008, his re-election in 2012, and Trump’s unexpected victory in 2016

The key factors working in Trump's favor at the moment are his incumbency and America's currently good economy

The key factors working in Trump's favor at the moment are his incumbency and America's currently good economy

The key factors working in Trump’s favor at the moment are his incumbency and America’s currently good economy

Polls suggest Joe Biden has the best chance of beating Trump even though many on the Left are opposed to the former Vice President winning the Democratic nomination.

Rattner noted that Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton by a wide margin of roughly three million people.

‘I’m quite confident that the [prediction model] gap was a function of the generally unfavorable rankings on Mr. Trump’s personal qualities,’ Rattner wrote. ‘In other words, a more ‘normal’ Republican would likely have won the popular vote by a substantial margin (instead of losing it by three million votes).’

The key factors working in Trump’s favor at the moment are his incumbency and America’s currently good economy.

CBS News notes that of the 20 incumbent US presidents before Trump who have been up for re-election only five, roughly 26 percent including Gerald Ford, have lost.

‘The question for 2020 may well be whether Mr. Trump can overcome the majority of voters’ poor perception of him and use a good economy and incumbency to win re-election,’ Rattner said.

Polls suggest Joe Biden has the best chance of beating Trump even though many on the Left are opposed to the former Vice President winning the Democratic nomination

Polls suggest Joe Biden has the best chance of beating Trump even though many on the Left are opposed to the former Vice President winning the Democratic nomination

Polls suggest Joe Biden has the best chance of beating Trump even though many on the Left are opposed to the former Vice President winning the Democratic nomination

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