Is May’s deal already sunk? Eighty nine Tory MPs have already come out against it

Theresa May has secured her deal in Brussels but her fight to get it actually in place in time for Brexit day is just beginning.

The ‘meaningful vote’ promised to MPs is expected to happen in early December and is the single biggest hurdle to the Brexit deal happening – and Mrs May’ fate as PM.    

Mrs May needs at least 318 votes in the Commons if all 650 MPs turns up – but can probably only be confident of around 230 votes.

The number is less than half because the four Speakers, 7 Sinn Fein MPs and four tellers will not take part. 

The situation looks grim for Mrs May and her whips: now the deal has been published, 89 of her own MPs and the 10 DUP MPs have publicly stated they will join the Opposition parties in voting No.

This means the PM could have as few as 225 votes in her corner – leaving 410 votes on the other side, a landslide majority 185.  

This is how the House of Commons might break down: 

Mrs May needs at least 318 votes in the Commons if all 650 MPs turns up – but can probably only be confident of around 230 votes. 

Mrs May needs at least 318 votes in the Commons if all 650 MPs turns up - but can probably only be confident of around 230 votes.

Mrs May needs at least 318 votes in the Commons if all 650 MPs turns up - but can probably only be confident of around 230 votes.

Mrs May needs at least 318 votes in the Commons if all 650 MPs turns up – but can probably only be confident of around 230 votes.

Theresa May has secured her deal in Brussels but her fight to get it actually in place in time for Brexit day is just beginning

The Government (plus various hangers-on) 

Who are they: All members of the Government are the so-called ‘payroll’ vote and are obliged to follow the whips orders or resign. It includes the Cabinet, all junior ministers, the whips and  unpaid parliamentary aides.

There are also a dozen Tory party ‘vice-chairs and 17 MPs appointed by the PM to be ‘trade envoys’. 

How many of them are there? 178. 

What do they want? For the Prime Minister to survive, get her deal and reach exit day with the minimum of fuss.

Many junior ministers want promotion while many of the Cabinet want to be in a position to take the top job when Mrs May goes. 

How will they vote? With the Prime Minister. 

European Research Group Brexiteers demanding a No Confidence Vote  

Who are they: The most hardline of the Brexiteers, they launched a coup against Mrs May after seeing the divorce. Led by Jacob Rees-Mogg and Steve Baker.  

How many of them are there: 26

What do they want: The removal of Mrs May and a ‘proper Brexit’. Probably no deal now, with hopes for a Canada-style deal later. 

How will they vote: Against the Prime Minister. 

The most hardline of the Brexiteers, they launched a coup against Mrs May after seeing the divorce. Led by Jacob Rees-Mogg and Steve Baker 

Other Brexiteers in the ERG

Who are they: There is a large block of Brexiteer Tory MPs who hate the deal but have so far stopped short of moving to remove Mrs May – believing that can destroy the deal instead. They include ex Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith and ex minister Owen Paterson. 

Ex ministers like Boris Johnson and David Davis are also in this group – they probably want to replace Mrs May but have not publicly moved against her.  

How many of them are there? Around 50.

What do they want?  The ERG has said Mrs May should abandon her plans for a unique trade deal and instead negotiate a ‘Canada plus plus plus’ deal.

This is based on a trade deal signed between the EU and Canada in August 2014 that eliminated 98 per cent of tariffs and taxes charged on goods shipped across the Atlantic.

The EU has long said it would be happy to do a deal based on Canada – but warn it would only work for Great Britain and not Northern Ireland. 

How will they vote:  Against the Prime Minister.

Remain including the People’s Vote supporters 

Who are they: Tory MPs who believe the deal is just not good enough for Britain. They include the group of unrepentant Remainers who want a new referendum like Anna Soubry and ex-ministers who quit over the deal including Jo Johnson and Phillip Lee.

How many of them are there: Maybe around 10.

What do they want? To stop Brexit. Some want a new referendum, some think Parliament should step up and say no. 

A new referendum would take about six months from start to finish and they group wants Remain as an option on the ballot paper, probably with Mrs May’s deal as the alternative. 

How will they vote? Against the Prime Minister. 

Anna Soubry is in a small group of unrepentant Remainer Tory MPs who want a second referendum on Brexit 

Anna Soubry is in a small group of unrepentant Remainer Tory MPs who want a second referendum on Brexit 

Anna Soubry is in a small group of unrepentant Remainer Tory MPs who want a second referendum on Brexit 

Moderates in the Brexit Delivery Group (BDG) and other Loyalists

Who are they? A newer group, the BDG counts members from across the Brexit divide inside the Tory Party. It includes former minister Nick Boles and MPs including Remainer Simon Hart and Brexiteer Andrew Percy. 

There are also lots of unaligned Tory MPs who are desperate to talk about anything else.

How many of them are there? Based on public declarations, about 48 MPs have either said nothing or backed the deal.

What do they want? The BDG prioritises delivering on Brexit and getting to exit day on March 29, 2019, without destroying the Tory Party or the Government. If the PM gets a deal the group will probably vote for it.

It is less interested in the exact form of the deal but many in it have said Mrs May’s Chequers plan will not work.

Mr Boles has set out a proposal for Britain to stay in the European Economic Area (EEA) until a free trade deal be negotiated – effectively to leave the EU but stay in close orbit as a member of the single market. 

How will they vote?  With the Prime Minister. 

Tory Simon Hart leads a group of Tory MPs committed to getting a pragmatic Brexit deal without pandering to ideological interests 

Tory Simon Hart leads a group of Tory MPs committed to getting a pragmatic Brexit deal without pandering to ideological interests 

Tory Simon Hart leads a group of Tory MPs committed to getting a pragmatic Brexit deal without pandering to ideological interests 

The DUP 

Who are they? The Northern Ireland Party signed up to a ‘confidence and supply’ agreement with the Conservative Party to prop up the Government.

They are Unionist and say Brexit is good but must not carve Northern Ireland out of the Union. 

How many of them are there? 10. 

What do they want? A Brexit deal that protects Northern Ireland inside the UK. 

How will they vote? Against the Prime Minister on the grounds they believe the deal breaches the red line of a border in the Irish Sea.

The DUP, led in Westminster by Nigel Dodds (right), have a deal with Theresa May but could still vote agianst her Brexit deal 

Labour Loyalists

Who are they? Labour MPs who are loyal to Jeremy Corbyn and willing to follow his whipping orders. 

How many of them are there? Up to 250 MPs depending on exactly what Mr Corbyn orders them to do.

What do they want? Labour policy is to demand a general election and if the Government refuses, ‘all options are on the table’, including a second referendum.

Labour insists it wants a ‘jobs first Brexit’ that includes a permanent customs union with the EU. It says it is ready to restart negotiations with the EU with a short extension to the Article 50 process.

The party says Mrs May’s deal fails its six tests for being acceptable.

How will they vote? Against the Prime Minister’s current deal.  

Labour MPs who are loyal to Jeremy Corbyn and willing to follow his whipping orders are expected to vote against the Prime Minister 

Labour Rebels 

Who are they? A mix of MPs totally opposed to Mr Corbyn’s leadership, some Labour Leave supporters who want a deal and some MPs who think any deal will do at this point. 

How many of them are there? Maybe 10 to 20 MPs but this group is diminishing fast – at least for the first vote on the deal.

What do they want? An orderly Brexit and to spite Mr Corbyn.

How will they vote? With the Prime Minister. 

Other Opposition parties

Who are they? The SNP, Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru, Green Caroline Lucas and assorted independents.

How many of them are there? About 60 MPs.

How will they vote? Mostly against the Prime Minister – though two of the independents are suspended Tories and two are Brexiteer former Labour MPs.  

The SNP led by Ian Blackford, Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru, Green Caroline Lucas and assorted independents will almost all vote against Theresa May 

Which Tory MPs have already said they will vote against the deal?

LETTER OF NO CONFIDENCE GROUP 

John Whittingdale

Mark Francois

David Jones

 Jacob Rees-Mogg

Steve Baker 

Andrea Jenkyns 

James Duddridge 

Ben Bradley

Marcus Fysh

Maria Caulfield

Simon Clarke

Ross Thomson

Henry Smith

Nadine Dorries

Chris Green

Andrew Bridgen

Sheryll Murray 

 Bill Cash

Lee Rowley

Peter Bone

Martin Vickers

Philip Davies

Anne-Marie Morris

 Adam Holloway

 Zac Goldsmith

Philip Hollobone

Laurence Robertson

OTHER BREXITEERS   

Boris Johnson

David Davis

Iain Duncan Smith

Owen Paterson

Priti Patel  

Sir Desmond Swayne

Julian Lewis  

Sir Bernard Jenkin

Sir Mike Penning

Sir David Amess

Sir Edward Leigh

Sir Christopher Chope

John Redwood   

Anne Main

Craig Mackinlay

Charlie Elphicke

Richard Bacon 

Conor Burns 

Trudy Harrison

Andrew Lewer

Nigel Mills  

Ranil Jayawardena

Suella Braverman

Anne-Marie Trevelyan

Andrew Rosindell  

James Gray  

Crispin Blunt

Richard Drax   

Bill Wiggin

Pauline Latham

Nigel Evans

Scott Mann

Tim Loughton  

Robert Courts

Michael Fabricant

Michael Tomlinson

Damian Collins   

Dominic Raab

Esther McVey  

Rehman Chishti  

Hugo Swire

Neil Parish

Steve Double

Theresa Villiers

Royston Smith

Mark Pritchard

Damien Moore

Daniel Kawczynski

Lucy Allan

David Evennett  

Rob Halfon

Bob Stewart

Gordon Henderson

Stephen Metcalfe 

REMAINERS  

Jo Johnson

Phillip Lee

Heidi Allen

Justine Greening

Dominic Grieve

Shailesh Vara 

Grant Shapps 

Anna Soubry 

 

What might happen if May loses her meaningful vote on the deal?

Assuming Theresa May finalises her Brexit deal this week, she will have to put it to the Commons – a vote almost everyone now thinks she will lose.

What happens next on the road to Brexit is very hard to forecast – but amid the chaos there are a series of routes which politicians could take.

These are six scenarios for how Brexit might play out:   

May renegotiates with Brussels and wins a second meaningful vote

This appears to be the Government’s current strategy. After MPs vote down the deal, the markets react with horror and Mrs May flies to Brussels to ask for help.

She either gets some new concessions or the EU says there really is nothing else.

Either way, Mrs May come back to the Commons and asks MPs to vote again – and wins as rebels back down in the face of no deal chaos and plunging markets.   

May renegotiates with Brussels but loses a second vote – triggering a confidence vote and a new Tory PM who orders a second referendum

Mrs May’s deal is defeated a second time in the Commons and Labour immediately calls a vote of confidence in the Government – which is lost.

Mrs May resigns as Prime Minister and is replaced in a quickfire Tory leadership contest. The winner is installed in No 10 but warned by the DUP the deal is still unacceptable.

Admitting there is no way to win a confidence vote and no renegotiation with Brussels, the new PM orders a second referendum on the deal or Brexit with no deal at all. 

This would probably require the Prime Minister to delay Brexit by extending the Article 50 process. 

May’s Brexit deal is rejected a second time in the House of Commons – she resigns and the new Prime Minister calls for a General Election to break the impasse 

Mrs May resigns immediately after her deal is rejected by the House of Commons for a second time. She stays on long enough in No 10 for a Tory leadership contest.

The new Prime Minister declares they want a mandate for their own version of Brexit and says they want a majority in the House of Commons to deliver it. 

Labour seizes on the chance to go to the polls and Tory MPs reluctantly vote in the Commons for a snap election in late January or early February.

The Government is re-elected with a majority and passes its version of the deal.  

May switches to support for a No Deal Brexit after MPs reject her plan – but Labour wins a vote demanding a new referendum with support from Tory Remain rebels 

After Mrs May’s deal is rejected by MPs, the Prime Minister insists the will of the Commons is clear and Brexit must be pursued without a deal.

She wins a confidence vote among all MPs and is able to cling to power while she drives the country toward exit day without a deal. 

Labour demands an election but ignored by the PM, takes its earliest opportunity to table a motion in the Commons which condemns a no deal Brexit and calls for a new referendum on Brexit. 

The motion passes – while it has no effect in law it changes the political mood dramatically. The Prime Minister says she cannot ignore the clear will of Parliament and starts the process of a new referendum.

May is replaced by a new Tory Prime Minister who immediately calls an election – but Labour wins with a promise for a referendum

After losing her deal in the Commons, Mrs May is replaced in a rapid leadership election. The new Tory Prime Minister immediately calls an election.

In the belief it can win by switching against Brexit, Labour changes its policy and puts a new referendum in its manifesto.

Polling day comes in late January and Mr Corbyn is returned as Prime Minister. 

He immediately goes to Brussels, gets a six month extension to Article 50 and starts the process of calling a new referendum on a Remain or Leave with a new deal question. 

The deal is defeated and after a no confidence vote, Remain MPs break party lines to back a new PM to form a national government that calls a referendum

Mrs May resigns amid chaos following a confidence vote – starting two weeks of limbo before a new election must be called in the absence of a Government.

In the vacuum, an MP calls on people across the Commons to break party lines and form a national government. The group forces a motion onto the floor of the House, possibly via the backbench business committee.

In a surprise result, the motion not only carries but has support of more than half of MPs – shifting the politics and prompting the new leader to be invited to form their national government.

The new Prime Minister calls a referendum with Remain, No Deal or May’s deal on the ballot paper – with a second round run off to decide the final settlement.  

 

 

 

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